Rational Choice in an Uncertain World : The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making,9780761922759

Rational Choice in an Uncertain World : The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making

by ;
ISBN13: 9780761922759
ISBN10: 076192275X
Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 2001-04-13
Publisher(s): Sage Publications, Inc
List Price: $87.10

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Summary

In Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, renowned authors Hastie and Dawes compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behavior in making decisions. They describe theories and research finding from the field of judgement and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well.

Author Biography

Reid Hastie is Professor of Psychology and Director of the Center for Research on Judgment and Policy at the University of Colorado Robyn M. Dawes is the Charles J. Queenan, Jr., University Professor of Psychology at Carnegie Mellon.

Table of Contents

Preface xi
Thinking and Deciding
1(24)
Decision Making Is a Skill
1(2)
Thinking: Automatic and Controlled
3(4)
The Computational Model of the Mind
7(5)
Through Darkest Psychoanalytic Theory and Behaviorism to Cognition
12(5)
Quality of Choice: Rationality
17(2)
The Invention of Modern Decision Theory
19(6)
What Is Decision Making?
25(174)
Definition of a Decision
25(4)
Picturing Decisions
29(4)
Decision Quality Revisited
33(1)
Incomplete Thinking: A Legal Example
34(2)
Overinclusive Thinking: Sunk Costs
36(6)
The Rationality of Considering Only the Future
42(3)
The Rest of This Book
45(143)
Changing Our Minds: Bayes' Theorem
188(7)
Concluding Comment on Rationality
195(4)
Evaluating Consequences: Simple Values
199(28)
What Good Is Happiness?
199(7)
Role of Emotion in Choice
206(7)
How We Sense Values: From the Just Noticeable Difference to Prospect Theory
213(9)
Mental Accounting
222(5)
Complex Values and Attitudes
227(22)
The Construction of Values
227(3)
Deliberate Choices Between Complex Alternatives
230(7)
Ordering Alternatives
237(5)
Grouping Alternatives
242(2)
How to Make Good Choices
244(5)
A Normative, Rational Decision Theory
249(40)
A Formal Definition of Rationality
249(7)
Subjective Expected Utility Theory
256(19)
Traditional Objections to the Axioms
275(4)
The Should's and Do's of the System
279(6)
Some Bum Raps for Decision Analysis
285(4)
A Descriptive, Psychological Decision Theory
289(24)
Nonexpected Utility Theories
289(9)
Gain-Loss Framing Effects
298(10)
Loss Aversion
308(2)
Look to the Future
310(3)
In Praise of Uncertainty
313(18)
Uncertainty as Negative
313(5)
An Illusion of Hedonic Certainty
318(1)
The Price of Denying Uncertainty
319(7)
Two Cheers for Uncertainty
326(2)
Living With Uncertainty
328(3)
Appendix: Basic Principles of Probability Theory 331(26)
A.1: The Concept of Probability
331(2)
A.2: From Gods to Numbers
333(6)
A.3: The Principles of Probability Theory
339(8)
A.4: Beliefs That Violate the Principles of Probability Theory
347(2)
A.5: Bayes' Theorem
349(2)
A.6: The Post Hoc Analysis of Coincidence
351(6)
Index 357(14)
About the Authors 371

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