Natural Resource Abundance, Growth, and Diversification in the Middle East and North Africa The Effects of Natural Resources and the Role of Policies

by ; ;
Format: Paperback
Pub. Date: 2012-10-02
Publisher(s): World Bank Publications
List Price: $33.55

Buy New

Usually Ships in 5-7 Business Days
$31.95

Rent Textbook

Select for Price
There was a problem. Please try again later.

Used Textbook

We're Sorry
Sold Out

eTextbook

We're Sorry
Not Available

How Marketplace Works:

  • This item is offered by an independent seller and not shipped from our warehouse
  • Item details like edition and cover design may differ from our description; see seller's comments before ordering.
  • Sellers much confirm and ship within two business days; otherwise, the order will be cancelled and refunded.
  • Marketplace purchases cannot be returned to eCampus.com. Contact the seller directly for inquiries; if no response within two days, contact customer service.
  • Additional shipping costs apply to Marketplace purchases. Review shipping costs at checkout.

Summary

MENA is one of the richest regions in the world in terms of natural resources: it holds more than 60 percent of the world's proven oil reserves, mostly located in the Gulf region, and nearly half of gas reserves. Oil represents 80-85 percent of merchandise exports in the region, making it highly depending on fluctuations in international prices. A long strand of economic literature has suggested that such dependence may hurt a country's growth prospects and the scope for job creation by reducing economic diversification. This volume investigates the effect of natural resources and the role of policies on achieving higher and sustained growth through diversification away from oil. It explores analytical questions which include: (i) the impact of the real exchange rate on manufacturing and tradable services competitiveness in MENA; (ii) the role of fiscal policy in supporting diversification; (iii) how weak links (input sectors with low productivity) play a critical role in explaining the concentration of economic activities, in addition to the classical Dutch Disease effect and (iv) the impact of macroeconomic factors on the drive for regional integration Several policy recommendations emerge from this analysis: (i) policymakers should strive to avoid real exchange rate overvaluation through consistent fiscal policies, flexible exchange rates and adequate product and factor market regulations; (ii) reforms to improve the competition and efficiency of upstream input activities are crucial for improving the performance of downstream activities and diversification in MENA (iii) a consistent and transparent fiscal policy is essential to reduce instability, build the fiscal space needed to invest in core infrastructure and human capital and create a favorable environment for diversification; (iv) while regional trade integration is desirable for political, social, cultural and economic reasons, in terms of trade liberalization, this is not the best option for resource-rich countries of the region. Policymakers should take this into account in discussing regional integration options. It is hoped that the findings of this work will be of interest to policymakers, the civil society, donors and practitioners in MENA countries and stimulate the debate of such an important topic.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgmentsp. xi
Contributorsp. xiii
Chapter Abstractsp. xvii
Abbreviationsp. xxi
An Overview of Diversification in MENA: Rationale, Stylized Facts, and Policy Issuesp. 1
The Facts: MENA Economies' Low Level of Diversificationp. 3
Limited Diversification, Natural Resource Rents, and Growth Volatilityp. 9
Why Is Greater Diversification Desirable in MENA?p. 11
The Role of Rents and Real Exchange Ratesp. 13
The Role of Weak Links in Output Concentrationp. 16
Fiscal Policy and Output Concentrationp. 18
Natural Resources and-Incentives for Regional Trade Reformsp. 20
Notesp. 22
Referencesp. 23
Resource Abundance and Growth: Benchmarking MENA with the Rest of the Worldp. 27
Benchmarking MENAÆs Long-Term Growth and Volatilityp. 29
Correlates of MENA's Growth Performancep. 36
Conclusionp. 60
Annex 2A Trade, Structural Change, and Natural Resourcesp. 61
Annex 2B Ten Observations on Successful Growthp. 71
Annex 2C Applied Tariff Protection Is Still Relatively Highp. 72
Annex 2D Ad-Valorem Equivalents Estimationsp. 74
Notesp. 78
Referencesp. 82
Rents, Regulatory Restrictions, and Diversification toward Services in Resource-Rich MENAp. 87
Services in MENA: Stylized Factsp. 89
Relative Roles of Engel's Effects in Consumption and Rentsp. 94
The Role of Microeconomic Regulationsp. 102
Export Diversification Opportunities for Resource-Poor MENAp. 105
Concluding Remarksp. 108
Notesp. 110
Referencesp. 110
Patterns of Diversification in MENA: Explaining MENA's Specificityp. 113
Empirical Methodologyp. 115
Measuring Weak Links and Dutch Disease Effectsp. 116
Data Descriptionp. 118
Empirical Resultsp. 118
Concluding Remarksp. 130
Notesp. 138
Referencesp. 140
Fiscal Policy and Diversification in MENAp. 143
Role of Fiscal Policy in the Aftermath of the Arab Springp. 144
Fiscal Policy in MENA: Stylized Factsp. 148
Fiscal Policy and Diversificationp. 156
The Behavior of Fiscal Policy in MENA: Econometric Evidencep. 168
Concluding Remarksp. 169
Notesp. 170
Referencesp. 172
Natural Resource Heterogeneity and the Incentives for and Impact of Regional Integrationp. 175
Trade Agreements in MENA: An Analytical Setupp. 177
Empirical Resultsp. 182
Concluding Remarksp. 190
Notesp. 195
Referencesp. 196
Country Grouping Classificationsp. 199
Notesp. 201
Referencesp. 201
Boxes
How Is MENA Performance Captured and Benchmarked in This Volume?p. 5
MENA in the Natural Resource Curse Literaturep. 40
Regulatory Restrictions in MENA: Findings from Other Case Studiesp. 104
Dubai's Successful Approach to Diversificationp. 106
Figures
Changes in the Composition of GDP, 1980-83 to 2007-10p. 3
Services Share in GDP by Level of Incomep. 4
Share of Services in Nonmining GDPp. 7
Drivers of Export Growth (Excluding Oil Products), 1998-2008p. 8
Natural Resource Rents in 2010, by Regionp. 10
Growth Volatility, by Regionp. 11
MENA Long-Run Growth Performancep. 30
Estimated Equilibrium Real Exchange Ratesp. 39
Frequency Ratios, Core NTMs, 2001-10p. 44
Average Distance of Trade and Trade Costsp. 50
Average Trade Distance of MENA Countries with Traditional and New Trade Partnersp. 52
Export Diversification and per Capita Incomep. 56
Kaplan-Meier Survival Ratesp. 58
Predicted Trade Shares in GDPp. 64
Actual versus Predicted Shares of Manufactures and Manufacture Exports: MENAp. 69
Predicted Applied MFN Protectionp. 73
Ad-Valorem Equivalent of NTMs and per Capita Incomep. 77
Services Value-Added Growth and GDP Growth in MENAp. 89
Composition of Exports in MENA and South Asia, 2008p. 90
Changes in the Composition of GDP: 1980-83 to 2007-10p. 91
Services Share in GDP by Level of Incomep. 92
Services Share in GDP, MENA versus Rest of the Worldp. 93
Share of Services in Nonmining GDPp. 95
Share of Consumption of Services in GDPp. 97
Share of Imported Services in GDPp. 98
Restrictiveness of Services Trade Policies and Share of Services in GDP, MENA-GCC, GCC, and Other Regionsp. 103
Diversification of Output (Giniout) on GDP per Capitap. 124
Diversification of Output (Giniempl) on GDP per Capitap. 124
Diversification of Output (Ginivadd) on GDP per Capitap. 125
Marginal Effect of GDPpc on Output Concentration [Giniout]p. 128
Marginal Effect of GDPpc on Employment Concentration [Giniempl]p. 129
Marginal Effect of GDPpc on Value-Added Concentration [Ginivadd]p. 130
Fiscal Dynamics in the Middle East on the Eve of the Arab Spring, 2010p. 145
Fiscal Balances in MENA, 2000-10p. 148
Real GDP Growth Rates in MENA, 2000-10p. 149
Revenue and Expenditures in MENA, 2000-10p. 150
GCC Government Fiscal Policyp. 154
GCC Sovereign Wealth Fundsp. 155
Level of Subsidies, 2006-10 Averagep. 158
Distribution of Subsidies to Poorest 40 percentp. 159
Public and Private Capital, 1982-2010p. 160
Saudi Arabia's GDP Decompositionp. 162
Number of Exported Products Compared across Four Countries, 2007p. 164
Jordanian Diversificationp. 166
Predicted Non-Oil Trade Diversion by MENA Countries Given the Pre-PAFTA Concentration Index Valuep. 189
Regional Distribution of Export Growth by Sector for Resource-Rich and Resource-Poor Countriesp. 191
Tables
Per Capita Income Mobility, 1982-2010p. 31
Growth and Its Volatility, 1982-2010p. 33
Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility by Periodp. 36
Deviations from Estimated Equilibrium Real Exchangep. 38
Policy Indicators Affecting Trade in MENAp. 45
Correlates of Bilateral Non-Oil Exportsp. 48
Firm-Level Productivity, MENA and Non-MENAp. 54
Correlates of Hazard Rates for 4-Digit Export Flowsp. 59
Correlates of Trade Shares in GDPp. 63
Correlates of the Share of Manufactures and Services in GDPp. 66
Correlates of the Share of Manufactures and Services in GDP in MENAp. 67
Frequency Distribution of the Number of NTMsp. 75
Ad-Valorem Equivalents of NTMsp. 76
Share of Rents from Natural Resources in GDPp. 99
Correlates of the Share of Services in GDPp. 100
Determinants of the Services Share in GDPp. 101
Sample Coverage and Number of Observationsp. 119
Summary Statistics of Measures of Diversificationp. 120
Correlation between Measures of Diversificationp. 120
Descriptive Statistics of P(low)p. 120
Imbs and Wacziarg's Results (2003)p. 121
Basic Regressions of Concentration on a Quadratic Function of GDPpcp. 123
Regressions of Concentration Including [GDPpc]3 and [GDPpc]4p. 126
Splitting Samples between Middle East and North Africa and the Rest of the Worldp. 127
Stages of Diversification and Weak Links versus Exchange Rate Appreciationp. 131
Splitting the Sample after Lower Tails of Productivityp. 132
Splitting the Sample after Changes in the Real Exchange Ratep. 133
Expanding Imbs and Wacziarg's Samplesp. 135
Regressions of Diversification on Income Level for OPEC Countriesp. 136
Regressions of Concentration for Subsamples of MEN A Countriesp. 137
Selected MENA Economics: Real GDP Projections and Fiscal Assessmentp. 147
Trade Creation and Diversion for Each Agreement Involving MENA Countries, 1990-2009p. 183
Decomposition of Intra-PAFTA Trade Creation and Diversion According to Natural Resources Endowment, 1990-2009p. 184
Decomposition of Intra-PAFTA Trade Creation and Diversion According to Natural Resources and Labor Endowment, 1990-2009p. 186
Decomposition of Intra-PAFTA Trade Creation and Diversionp. 188
Agreements Involving MENA Countries as Importerp. 193
Comparator Groupsp. 200
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

An electronic version of this book is available through VitalSource.

This book is viewable on PC, Mac, iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch, and most smartphones.

By purchasing, you will be able to view this book online, as well as download it, for the chosen number of days.

Digital License

You are licensing a digital product for a set duration. Durations are set forth in the product description, with "Lifetime" typically meaning five (5) years of online access and permanent download to a supported device. All licenses are non-transferable.

More details can be found here.

A downloadable version of this book is available through the eCampus Reader or compatible Adobe readers.

Applications are available on iOS, Android, PC, Mac, and Windows Mobile platforms.

Please view the compatibility matrix prior to purchase.