
Natural Resource Abundance, Growth, and Diversification in the Middle East and North Africa The Effects of Natural Resources and the Role of Policies
by Diop, Ndiame'; Marotta, Daniela; de Melo, JaimeBuy New
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Summary
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments | p. xi |
Contributors | p. xiii |
Chapter Abstracts | p. xvii |
Abbreviations | p. xxi |
An Overview of Diversification in MENA: Rationale, Stylized Facts, and Policy Issues | p. 1 |
The Facts: MENA Economies' Low Level of Diversification | p. 3 |
Limited Diversification, Natural Resource Rents, and Growth Volatility | p. 9 |
Why Is Greater Diversification Desirable in MENA? | p. 11 |
The Role of Rents and Real Exchange Rates | p. 13 |
The Role of Weak Links in Output Concentration | p. 16 |
Fiscal Policy and Output Concentration | p. 18 |
Natural Resources and-Incentives for Regional Trade Reforms | p. 20 |
Notes | p. 22 |
References | p. 23 |
Resource Abundance and Growth: Benchmarking MENA with the Rest of the World | p. 27 |
Benchmarking MENAÆs Long-Term Growth and Volatility | p. 29 |
Correlates of MENA's Growth Performance | p. 36 |
Conclusion | p. 60 |
Annex 2A Trade, Structural Change, and Natural Resources | p. 61 |
Annex 2B Ten Observations on Successful Growth | p. 71 |
Annex 2C Applied Tariff Protection Is Still Relatively High | p. 72 |
Annex 2D Ad-Valorem Equivalents Estimations | p. 74 |
Notes | p. 78 |
References | p. 82 |
Rents, Regulatory Restrictions, and Diversification toward Services in Resource-Rich MENA | p. 87 |
Services in MENA: Stylized Facts | p. 89 |
Relative Roles of Engel's Effects in Consumption and Rents | p. 94 |
The Role of Microeconomic Regulations | p. 102 |
Export Diversification Opportunities for Resource-Poor MENA | p. 105 |
Concluding Remarks | p. 108 |
Notes | p. 110 |
References | p. 110 |
Patterns of Diversification in MENA: Explaining MENA's Specificity | p. 113 |
Empirical Methodology | p. 115 |
Measuring Weak Links and Dutch Disease Effects | p. 116 |
Data Description | p. 118 |
Empirical Results | p. 118 |
Concluding Remarks | p. 130 |
Notes | p. 138 |
References | p. 140 |
Fiscal Policy and Diversification in MENA | p. 143 |
Role of Fiscal Policy in the Aftermath of the Arab Spring | p. 144 |
Fiscal Policy in MENA: Stylized Facts | p. 148 |
Fiscal Policy and Diversification | p. 156 |
The Behavior of Fiscal Policy in MENA: Econometric Evidence | p. 168 |
Concluding Remarks | p. 169 |
Notes | p. 170 |
References | p. 172 |
Natural Resource Heterogeneity and the Incentives for and Impact of Regional Integration | p. 175 |
Trade Agreements in MENA: An Analytical Setup | p. 177 |
Empirical Results | p. 182 |
Concluding Remarks | p. 190 |
Notes | p. 195 |
References | p. 196 |
Country Grouping Classifications | p. 199 |
Notes | p. 201 |
References | p. 201 |
Boxes | |
How Is MENA Performance Captured and Benchmarked in This Volume? | p. 5 |
MENA in the Natural Resource Curse Literature | p. 40 |
Regulatory Restrictions in MENA: Findings from Other Case Studies | p. 104 |
Dubai's Successful Approach to Diversification | p. 106 |
Figures | |
Changes in the Composition of GDP, 1980-83 to 2007-10 | p. 3 |
Services Share in GDP by Level of Income | p. 4 |
Share of Services in Nonmining GDP | p. 7 |
Drivers of Export Growth (Excluding Oil Products), 1998-2008 | p. 8 |
Natural Resource Rents in 2010, by Region | p. 10 |
Growth Volatility, by Region | p. 11 |
MENA Long-Run Growth Performance | p. 30 |
Estimated Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates | p. 39 |
Frequency Ratios, Core NTMs, 2001-10 | p. 44 |
Average Distance of Trade and Trade Costs | p. 50 |
Average Trade Distance of MENA Countries with Traditional and New Trade Partners | p. 52 |
Export Diversification and per Capita Income | p. 56 |
Kaplan-Meier Survival Rates | p. 58 |
Predicted Trade Shares in GDP | p. 64 |
Actual versus Predicted Shares of Manufactures and Manufacture Exports: MENA | p. 69 |
Predicted Applied MFN Protection | p. 73 |
Ad-Valorem Equivalent of NTMs and per Capita Income | p. 77 |
Services Value-Added Growth and GDP Growth in MENA | p. 89 |
Composition of Exports in MENA and South Asia, 2008 | p. 90 |
Changes in the Composition of GDP: 1980-83 to 2007-10 | p. 91 |
Services Share in GDP by Level of Income | p. 92 |
Services Share in GDP, MENA versus Rest of the World | p. 93 |
Share of Services in Nonmining GDP | p. 95 |
Share of Consumption of Services in GDP | p. 97 |
Share of Imported Services in GDP | p. 98 |
Restrictiveness of Services Trade Policies and Share of Services in GDP, MENA-GCC, GCC, and Other Regions | p. 103 |
Diversification of Output (Giniout) on GDP per Capita | p. 124 |
Diversification of Output (Giniempl) on GDP per Capita | p. 124 |
Diversification of Output (Ginivadd) on GDP per Capita | p. 125 |
Marginal Effect of GDPpc on Output Concentration [Giniout] | p. 128 |
Marginal Effect of GDPpc on Employment Concentration [Giniempl] | p. 129 |
Marginal Effect of GDPpc on Value-Added Concentration [Ginivadd] | p. 130 |
Fiscal Dynamics in the Middle East on the Eve of the Arab Spring, 2010 | p. 145 |
Fiscal Balances in MENA, 2000-10 | p. 148 |
Real GDP Growth Rates in MENA, 2000-10 | p. 149 |
Revenue and Expenditures in MENA, 2000-10 | p. 150 |
GCC Government Fiscal Policy | p. 154 |
GCC Sovereign Wealth Funds | p. 155 |
Level of Subsidies, 2006-10 Average | p. 158 |
Distribution of Subsidies to Poorest 40 percent | p. 159 |
Public and Private Capital, 1982-2010 | p. 160 |
Saudi Arabia's GDP Decomposition | p. 162 |
Number of Exported Products Compared across Four Countries, 2007 | p. 164 |
Jordanian Diversification | p. 166 |
Predicted Non-Oil Trade Diversion by MENA Countries Given the Pre-PAFTA Concentration Index Value | p. 189 |
Regional Distribution of Export Growth by Sector for Resource-Rich and Resource-Poor Countries | p. 191 |
Tables | |
Per Capita Income Mobility, 1982-2010 | p. 31 |
Growth and Its Volatility, 1982-2010 | p. 33 |
Real Effective Exchange Rate Volatility by Period | p. 36 |
Deviations from Estimated Equilibrium Real Exchange | p. 38 |
Policy Indicators Affecting Trade in MENA | p. 45 |
Correlates of Bilateral Non-Oil Exports | p. 48 |
Firm-Level Productivity, MENA and Non-MENA | p. 54 |
Correlates of Hazard Rates for 4-Digit Export Flows | p. 59 |
Correlates of Trade Shares in GDP | p. 63 |
Correlates of the Share of Manufactures and Services in GDP | p. 66 |
Correlates of the Share of Manufactures and Services in GDP in MENA | p. 67 |
Frequency Distribution of the Number of NTMs | p. 75 |
Ad-Valorem Equivalents of NTMs | p. 76 |
Share of Rents from Natural Resources in GDP | p. 99 |
Correlates of the Share of Services in GDP | p. 100 |
Determinants of the Services Share in GDP | p. 101 |
Sample Coverage and Number of Observations | p. 119 |
Summary Statistics of Measures of Diversification | p. 120 |
Correlation between Measures of Diversification | p. 120 |
Descriptive Statistics of P(low) | p. 120 |
Imbs and Wacziarg's Results (2003) | p. 121 |
Basic Regressions of Concentration on a Quadratic Function of GDPpc | p. 123 |
Regressions of Concentration Including [GDPpc]3 and [GDPpc]4 | p. 126 |
Splitting Samples between Middle East and North Africa and the Rest of the World | p. 127 |
Stages of Diversification and Weak Links versus Exchange Rate Appreciation | p. 131 |
Splitting the Sample after Lower Tails of Productivity | p. 132 |
Splitting the Sample after Changes in the Real Exchange Rate | p. 133 |
Expanding Imbs and Wacziarg's Samples | p. 135 |
Regressions of Diversification on Income Level for OPEC Countries | p. 136 |
Regressions of Concentration for Subsamples of MEN A Countries | p. 137 |
Selected MENA Economics: Real GDP Projections and Fiscal Assessment | p. 147 |
Trade Creation and Diversion for Each Agreement Involving MENA Countries, 1990-2009 | p. 183 |
Decomposition of Intra-PAFTA Trade Creation and Diversion According to Natural Resources Endowment, 1990-2009 | p. 184 |
Decomposition of Intra-PAFTA Trade Creation and Diversion According to Natural Resources and Labor Endowment, 1990-2009 | p. 186 |
Decomposition of Intra-PAFTA Trade Creation and Diversion | p. 188 |
Agreements Involving MENA Countries as Importer | p. 193 |
Comparator Groups | p. 200 |
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