| Foreword |
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ix | |
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xi | |
| Introduction |
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1 | (5) |
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Technical trading rules and regime shifts in foreign exchange |
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6 | (36) |
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6 | (1) |
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7 | (1) |
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Null models for foreign exchange movements |
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8 | (1) |
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9 | (19) |
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Economic significance of trading-rule profits |
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28 | (8) |
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36 | (6) |
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Foundations of technical analysis: computational algorithms, statistical inference and empirical implementation |
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42 | (70) |
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42 | (3) |
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Smoothing estimators and kernel regression |
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45 | (7) |
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Automating technical analysis |
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52 | (11) |
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Is technical analysis informative? |
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63 | (41) |
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104 | (1) |
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104 | (8) |
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Mean-variance analysis, trading rules and emerging markets |
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112 | (10) |
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112 | (1) |
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Data and portfolio construction |
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113 | (2) |
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115 | (3) |
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118 | (4) |
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Expected returns of directional forecasters |
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122 | (30) |
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122 | (1) |
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123 | (2) |
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125 | (5) |
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130 | (14) |
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Conditional heteroskedasticity and linear rule returns |
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144 | (3) |
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147 | (1) |
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148 | (4) |
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Some exact results for moving-average trading rules with applications to UK indices |
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152 | (22) |
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152 | (3) |
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The moving-average trading rule |
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155 | (2) |
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The stochastic process for asset returns |
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157 | (7) |
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The moving-average (∞ 1) rule |
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164 | (5) |
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Applications to UK stock and futures markets |
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169 | (2) |
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171 | (3) |
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The portfolio distribution of directional strategies |
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174 | (9) |
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174 | (1) |
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Portfolio returns of directional strategies |
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175 | (1) |
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Exact distribution under the normal random walk assumption |
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176 | (3) |
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179 | (2) |
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181 | (2) |
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The profits to technical analysis in foreign exchange markets have not disappeared |
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183 | (66) |
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183 | (3) |
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186 | (18) |
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204 | (3) |
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207 | (30) |
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237 | (12) |
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The economic value of leading edge techniques for exchange rate prediction |
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249 | (15) |
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249 | (1) |
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Basic concepts, data processing and modelling procedure |
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250 | (5) |
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Empirical results and further developments |
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255 | (6) |
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261 | (3) |
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Is more always better? Head-and-shoulders and filter rules in foreign exchange markets |
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264 | (15) |
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264 | (1) |
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Defining filter rules and head-and-shoulders patterns |
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265 | (4) |
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Measuring profits from technical signals |
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269 | (2) |
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Empirical profitability of the technical trading rules in FX data |
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271 | (2) |
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The incremental profitability of the head-and-shoulders pattern |
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273 | (2) |
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275 | (4) |
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Informative spillovers in the currency markets: a practical approach through exogenous trading rules |
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279 | (33) |
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279 | (1) |
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The series and their statistical properties |
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280 | (16) |
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The endogenous and exogenous trading rules |
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296 | (7) |
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303 | (9) |
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Stop-loss rules as a monitoring device: theory and evidence from the bond futures market |
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312 | (33) |
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312 | (2) |
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314 | (5) |
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A test of the existence of stop-loss strategies |
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319 | (5) |
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324 | (12) |
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336 | (1) |
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337 | (3) |
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340 | (5) |
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Evolving technical trading rules for S&P 500 futures |
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345 | (22) |
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345 | (1) |
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346 | (3) |
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Evolving technical trading rules |
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349 | (3) |
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Testing the trading rules |
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352 | (5) |
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Analysing trading rule signals |
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357 | (6) |
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363 | (4) |
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Commodity trading advisors and their role in managed futures |
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367 | (21) |
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367 | (1) |
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Benefits of investing in managed futures |
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368 | (1) |
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Measures of investment and return |
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368 | (8) |
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376 | (1) |
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Overview of creating a managed futures program |
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377 | (2) |
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Commodity trading advisors |
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379 | (1) |
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Systematic versus discretionary traders |
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380 | (7) |
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387 | (1) |
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388 | (31) |
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388 | (1) |
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388 | (3) |
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391 | (7) |
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398 | (6) |
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404 | (10) |
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Performance futures fund and BAREP commodities futures fund |
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414 | (4) |
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418 | (1) |
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The need for performance evaluation in technical analysis |
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419 | (22) |
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419 | (1) |
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420 | (3) |
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Practical use of performance tools |
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423 | (8) |
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431 | (7) |
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438 | (3) |
| Index |
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441 | |